A day after the Congressional Budget Office released its latest scoring of Finance chairman Max Baucus‘ effort at health care reform, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced that the Senate Finance Committee has scheduled a vote on the America’s Healthy Future Act when the Senate returns from Columbus Day weekend next Tuesday, October 13. While Democrats Kent Conrad and Blanche Lincoln have yet to announce whether they will vote in favor of the bill, the estimated price tag of $829 billion is expected to be satisfactory to Democrats on the committee and put the bill in the hands of Reid in anticipation of a floor debate.
The Finance Committee bill is the only health care reform effort produced this year that has scored under President Obama’s declared veto threshold of $900 billion and is the only bill that does not include the politically charged government-run public option insurance plan. Both of those facts make it a favorite for approval by the United States Senate, but also set up a showdown between Senators and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi who earlier today promised that any bill passed by the House would include a public option.
Most pundits agree that a health care reform bill void of a public option will not garner the votes necessary to pass muster in the more liberal House Democrats. Yet, of the four public option driven bills currently being considered by Congress (three in the House alone), none have scored under $1 trillion dollars. Baucus’ cooperatives plan - which has drawn suspicion from conservatives for being a wolf in sheep’s clothing, is therefore the best chance Democrats have of sending a reform bill to Obama’s desk in 2009 but is far from guaranteed to even make it out of the Senate.
Under the plan, 94 percent of Americans are expected to have health insurance by 2019 and revenues raised under the legislation - primarily through the introduction of new taxes, could actually reduce the budget by as much as $81 billion over the same time period.
- According to CBO and JCT’s assessment, enacting the Chairman’s mark, as amended, would result in a net reduction in federal budget deficits of $81 billion over the 2010–2019 period.
- By 2019, CBO and JCT estimate, the number of nonelderly people who are uninsured would be reduced by about 29 million, leaving about 25 million nonelderly residents uninsured (about one-third of whom would be unauthorized immigrants). (For the complete CBO analysis, click here.)
To the most liberal of Democrats, these cost savings come at the expense of approximately 16 million Americans (and another 8 million illegal immigrants) going without health insurance who they believe would be covered under a public option.To Republicans, the costs are too high to ensure too few and represent the single largest expansion of government entitlement programs in nearly four decades.
This is most likely why Reid has yet to back off of his threat to invoke the nuclear option of budget reconciliation should whip counts not provide the 60 votes he needs to get the bill through a full Senate floor debate. But, Reid has less than 48 hours after the Finance Committee votes to meet the October 15 deadline for invoking reconciliation. So, look for a Reid-authored Senate heath care reform bill to leak out well before the Finance Committee reconvenes next week.




