A CNN snap poll from after Wednesday’s speech looked rosy, showing that viewers increased in their support for Obama’s proposals, from 53% up to 67%.
That’s before you consider CNN totally oversampled Democrats who support reform in the first place.
The problem is way more Democrats watched the speech than Republicans - as if the above numbers wouldn’t tell you that. Compared to the general population Democrats made up 45%, Republicans 18%, and the rest were independent.
“Those [gains] are almost identical to a poll conducted immediately after Bill Clinton’s health care speech before Congress in September, 1993.”
And we all know how that turned out.
CBS Poll
CBS News hopes their poll will be more credible, showing a more modest 12 percent gain, but most people don’t think reform will help them (or really understand “Obama’s Plan”).
The poll shows Americans now give him the “best marks of his presidency on handling health care,” but people still aren’t sure what his “plan” entails. Only 22 percent said the reforms now being considered would help them personally.
Thursday, CBS re-interviewed 678 adults first questioned August 27-31.
Last week, just 40 percent of these adults approved of how the president was handling health care. More, 47 percent, disapproved. After the speech, 52 percent said they approved and only 38 percent said they disapproved. Those are the best assessments for Mr. Obama’s handling of health care shown all year by CBS News Polls.
CBS Poll
The re-poll reached 648 of the 678 original respondents and CBS claims the original margin of error at plus or minus 4 percent. “While the error for subgroups is higher, the error on measures of individual change is smaller.”
Based on that poll, Salon.com is caling President Obama’s address to Congress, “mostly, a winner.”
Not so fast.
Politico blogger Glenn Thrush pointed out that Americans are skeptical of polls, however, after the CNN post-speech poll “skewed Democrat.”
One other critical detail I should have added — Obama’s coattails are microscopic: When asked if the bills floating through Congress would help or hurt, 22% said help, 27% said hurt and a whopping 47% said it would have no effect. Those stats are slightly better than a week before but virtually unchanged.
The huge number of undecideds-unsures-pursuadables underscores what the Gallup survey released earlier this week showed, that when it comes to public opinion health care reform — despite all the hype and vitriol — is still basically a jump ball.
Democracy Corps‘ dial-tested focus group of debate-watchers in Denver, Colo. focused on evenly devided swing voters who sided 54 to 46 percent between Obama and John McCain in the 2008 election.
These voters’ support and opposition of the health care plan went from 46 percent for and 46 percent against before the speech, to 66 to 30 percent afterward. In addition, before the speech only 44 percent described the plan as “the right kind of change,” with 52 percent saying it was not. That number then shifted to 50 to 40 percent after the speech.
A Rasmussen survey found only 2 percent increase in support for the Democrats’ health care reform proposal - up to 46 percent since the two days before Obama’s speech.
RealClearPolitics’ Kyle Trygstad points out that, “The speech appears to have had more of an impact on Democrats, though, as Rasmussen reports that the boost comes “entirely from those in the president’s own party.”
“Enjoy it while it lasts, champ, because no one — including liberal Democrats — thinks it will,” writes Hot Air’s Allahpundit.
The One’s struggling just to pull a bare majority. Soon liberals and moderates will start freaking out anew over the public option and then the erosion will begin again. The only thing he can do now to keep Democrats from tearing each other’s throats out is to give them some Republican throats to tear at instead, which, as Karl noted yesterday, is why his speech was so partisan and why the media will continue to wet itself over Joe Wilson for as long as it can.
